This Just In: Tigers are in trouble
Posted on April 20, 2008
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April baseball writing can best be described as “Small-Sample Size Theater.” Drawing any sort of conclusion from the data available so far is just not wise, though we do it anyways because, hey, we’ve got deadlines to meet.
However, sometimes you can notice things that you feel safe in asserting, and this is one of them: The Tigers are in a lot more trouble than I thought. While many of us have brushed off their 6-12 start (6-13 after Sunday’s loss to the Blue Jays) to an April aberration, I’m not so sure that is the case anymore.
Sputtering as the offense has been, the bats aren’t the main reason Detroit has struggled. The Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames left-field platoon of death notwithstanding, the Tigers will score their share of runs by the time 2008 is done. They came into Sunday’s game tied for 10th in the American League in runs, averaging 4.11 per game. Not good, but not horrendous either. If you want horrendous, check out at the OPS+ of Messrs. Jones (11) and Thames (43). Once Curtis Granderson returns and Gary Sheffield heats up, the runs will come much easier.
The bullpen, supposedly the biggest source for concern, isn’t really the problem either. Though the unit has a 5.28 ERA overall, the top three of Todd Jones, Denny Bautista, Aquilino Lopez have combined to allow only three earned runs in 22 appearances. In today’s loss to Toronto the bullpen combined for three shutout innings.
It would almost be a relief to Tigers fans if it were the bullpen that was holding this club back. Bullpens can be fixed on the fly with a little luck and some creative restructuring.
No, the real weakness on this club is something that’s much tougher to fix: starting pitching. The Tigers rank dead last in the AL in runs allowed with 6.22 per game; that’s more than a run worse than the 13th-place Yankees (4.84 runs allowed per game). The Tigers’ starters have a 5.96 ERA, and not all of that is because of Dontrelle Willis.
The alarm bells rang in my head when one of the announcers in today’s Tigers-Blue Jays game pointed out that Jeremy Bonderman has been the club’s best pitcher. Bonderman? The guy I just released in my 12-team fantasy mixed league because of his consistent mediocrity? Bonderman has an ERA of 4.37 and an ERA+ of 98. He started 2007 with a 10-1 record. Since then, this is what he has done in 15 starts: 2-10, 6.86 ERA, 84 IP, 111 hits, 14 HR. (Brought to you by the Baseball Musings Day-By-Day Database.)
At his best right now Bonderman is an average American League starting pitcher. He lacks either the repertoire (third pitch) or the health to be much more than that. These days, “Average AL pitcher” is not an entirely bad thing to be. It’s not an easy thing to be, either. There are a lot of guys who wish they could say the same thing right now (C.C. Sabathia, I’m looking at you). But if you are a preseason favorite to win the AL Central, and the AL pennant for that matter, then this guy needs to be your No. 3 or No. 4 starter, not your ace.
Ace is the role Justin Verlander is supposed to fill, but he’s been abysmal (0-3, 61 ERA+). Frankly I’m shocked any time Verlander struggles because his stuff is as good as anybody’s in the league. Until he can consistently get his results to match his stuff, though, he won’t be a true ace.
After those two guys, it gets ugly. Kenny Rogers is 43 and looking every bit of that age. Nate Robertson is a left-handed, poor-man’s Bonderman: average as average can be. Every one of Robertson’s starts are the same: He’ll go five or six innings and give up about four runs, give or take a line drive hit right at somebody or a misplay in the field. He treads a thin line between mediocrity and disaster. Today he allowed five runs in five innings, par for the course for him. D-Train has been a predictable bust and is now hurt; they may in fact be better off with longtime minor-leaguer Armando Galarraga taking over his spot.
Is it too early to call up Rick Porcello?
Barring some kind of major trade or an unlikely resurgence from Willis or Bonderman, this just isn’t the makings of a championship rotation.
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